Trump vs Trump is neck and neck

The race for the White House is hotting up

As predicted in my earlier blog this election is going to the wire. So where do we go from here?

As I went to bed late last night a disconsolate sounding Trump and a more triumphant sounding Biden were suggesting an emphatic win for the Democrat candidate. However as I woke this morning swing states such as Florida and targeted states such as Texas were firmly behind Trump and his mood was much more upbeat.

The referendum on Trump’s Presidency is going all the way, possibly via the Supreme Court.

Could FLorida Point the way?

Alex Shutin via Unsplash

Florida is one of those swing states which can really decide elections. With 29 Electoral College votes up for grabs it is a key state, just ask George W Bush or Al Gore from the 2000 Presidential election. However this year against polling predictions Florida has steadfastedly remained with Donald Trump. Political commentators have identified the Latino voters as being a key demographic here, with a population in the state of 4.3 million accounting for nearly a quarter of the state’s registered voters.

It appears that Trumps anti-Socialism message has resonated with Latino voters who originated from Castro’s Cuba, however it is Florida’s predominately white population who have turned out in huge numbers for Trump, with 61% of the white vote ultimately delivering this key state.

Florida is not a strong barometer of the nations mood as it does have an unusually high Latino vote, however interestingly Trumps security over the white working class vote is evident, boosting his chances in those rust belt states to the north particularly in Wisconsin, Michigan and Wisconsin where the votes are yet to be counted.

Wisconsin: A major Midwestern battleground, it backed Democrats for over two decades before opting for Trump in 2016. Here, Biden has a narrow lead with almost all votes counted

Michigan: The rivals are pretty much neck-and-neck here but many ballots in Democrat-leaning populated areas, like Detroit, are yet to be counted

Pennsylvania: With 20 electoral college votes, it’s a major political battleground. Trump has a significant lead, but a huge number of mail-in ballots are yet to be counted and a result is not expected until Friday. Legal challenges from the Republicans loom over the result here

BBC News

Over 100 million Americans voted in this election the highest in more than a century. This can mean several different outcomes and the polls will bring some clarity. My own view is that the democrats rely heavily on a large minority turnout, however this may be nullified if the overall turnout is much higher than expected.

Voter Fraud

Markus Winkler via Unsplash

As again predicted in my blog, Trump will be taking this contest to the Supreme Court, not for the first time echoing Bush vs Gore 2000. The surge in postal ballots could be challenged, especially if the validity of the ballots is called into the question. These lawsuits could go all the way to the Supreme Court delaying the result further. There is no current evidence of voter fraud however if the result is close, expect a strong challenge from the Trump camp.

Is a tie possible?

This morning I received this message from a former student,

“So remember when you told me to stop asking stupid questions around whether a US Election could be a draw?!”

Jackson Wild via Linkedin

And annoyingly he is right, there are 538 electoral votes up for grabs, with a fixed number of electors representing each state based roughly on the size of its population. This means a draw is possible at 269 votes each, although very unlikely. If no candidate gains a majority of votes in the electoral college, it would be over to the US Congress to decide. It would be the members of Congress elected in the 2020 elections who would take on this responsibility. The House of Representatives would vote to decide the president, with each state delegation having one vote – a majority of 26 is needed for a candidate to become president. The Senate would choose the vice-president, with all 100 senators having a vote.

All we do know is that postal ballots could well decide this election one way or another, there is a feel that the Democrats would benefit from this which is why Trump wants counting to stop and Biden says we are not stopping until every vote counts. The Electoral College meet on 14th December and according to the Constitution the absolute final cut off is 20th January.

If you are looking for a clear winner you will not find it here, we could be in for a long wait. 

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